Mumbai, November 17 — The Sensex today is expected to open on a positive note as early indicators point to an upward trajectory for Indian equities following the Bihar election results and supportive global cues. Pre-market data from GIFT Nifty suggests modest gains at the opening bell, hinting that investor sentiment remains upbeat despite global market volatility.
Market participants say the broader tone is improving as political clarity, stable macroeconomic indicators and easing global bond yields provide the necessary support for the benchmark indices. With corporate earnings season nearing completion, traders anticipate a session where both domestic and external signals shape market direction.
GIFT Nifty Begins Firm, Signals Upward Trajectory
GIFT Nifty futures traded in the green during early Asian hours, suggesting an optimistic market opening. Analysts say the index reflects a combination of domestic confidence and global stability, with U.S. Treasury yields softening and risk-on sentiment returning in Asian equities.
Over the past few weeks, GIFT Nifty has become an increasingly accurate barometer of the day’s trading tone, especially when major political developments are involved.
Election Results Lift Market Mood
The Bihar assembly election outcome has played a major role in influencing investor sentiment. Political analysts say the results offer clarity on policy direction for the next few years, reducing uncertainty often associated with state-level polls. For markets, political stability translates to policy continuity in infrastructure spending, welfare schemes, taxation and industry-specific reforms.
Historically, major state election outcomes have had strong short-term effects on market mood, even if long-term fundamentals remain unchanged. For now, the upbeat sentiment from election results is helping cushion global volatility.
Global Cues Add Support
Asian markets traded higher this morning, supported by easing inflation in Japan, China’s fresh economic stimulus, and expectations of a softer U.S. Federal Reserve stance in the upcoming December meeting.
Key global cues influencing Sensex today include:
- U.S. inflation cooling, raising possibility of earlier rate cuts
- China’s infrastructure stimulus, supporting metal and manufacturing companies
- Japanese markets rebounding, lifting overall Asian indices
- Oil prices are stabilizing, easing import-related inflation pressure for India
Together, these factors have fed optimism into domestic equities, particularly for sectors sensitive to global demand.
Sectoral Outlook for the Day
Analysts expect a mixed but constructive sectoral performance today.
Likely gainers:
- Metals: Supported by China’s fresh infrastructure push
- Banks: Positive risk sentiment boosts credit and BFSI counters
- IT services: Benefiting from softer U.S. bond yields
- Infrastructure & Capital Goods: Favoured post-election policy cues
Sectors to watch:
- Auto: Demand concerns persist in entry-level segment
- Pharma: Stable but stock-specific triggers may dominate
- FMCG: Soft rural inflation may help pricing outlook
Midcaps and smallcaps may also witness selective buying after outperforming largecaps last week.
Domestic Variables: RBI, Inflation, Earnings
Beyond political and global cues, markets will also track domestic macro signals:
1. RBI’s inflation commentary
Retail inflation remains within the RBI’s comfort zone, giving the central bank space for a balanced approach during the next policy review.
2. Corporate earnings wrap-up
Companies across BFSI, consumer goods, metals and IT have reported steady or improved earnings. Analysts expect final-week earnings announcements to set the tone for short-term sector rotation.
3. FPI activity
Foreign portfolio investors have resumed buying after months of outflows. Recent data shows net inflows of ₹14,610 crore in October, reflecting renewed confidence in India’s long-term economic story.
Technical Levels to Watch
Technical analysts note the following important levels:
- Nifty 50 support: 19,300
- Nifty 50 resistance: 19,550
- Sensex support: 64,900
- Sensex resistance: 65,600
A breakout above resistance levels could lead to a bullish continuation trend, especially if foreign inflows remain supportive.
Conclusion
The market mood ahead of today’s opening is broadly optimistic, powered by political clarity, positive global cues, and stable domestic indicators. While risks remain — including global volatility, Middle East tensions and commodity swings — the overarching sentiment is that the Indian market continues to stand on strong fundamentals.
With Sensex today expected to start firm and Nifty looking to inch upward, investors will be closely watching whether early gains translate into sustained momentum through the session.
